SurveyUSA (8/9-11, likely voters, 7/12-14 in parens):
Kay Hagan (D): 41 (42)
Liddy Dole (R-inc): 46 (54)
Chris Cole (L): 7 (-)
(MoE: ±3.9%)
So the gap closes from 12 to 5 points, but here’s the rub: SUSA is now including Libertarian Chris Cole in the match-up, and it seems very doubtful that he’ll be able to perform this well on election day. For now, Cole is taking heavy chunks from males (11%), voters aged 18-34 (12%), and independents (21%). Those numbers will dissipate by November — likely in both directions.
It’s still good news for Hagan, who went up on the air with her first general election ad today. Dole’s also been hit recently by ads from the DSCC and Majority Action. Hopefully the two prongs of Hagan’s positives and the DSCC’s attacks will help to keep the numbers moving in the right direction.
SSP currently rates this race as Lean Republican.
(H/T: RandySF)
I’m betting it’s even a little closer than this; it seems really odd that Dole is leading with young voters 49-34. She’s probably up at least a little bit with them if the Libertarian’s is hitting 12%, but a 15-point gap?
This new poll is a bit more liberal and democratic in sample than the last poll. That could account for the shift.
I didn’t even they had a candidate from that party running in the NC Senate! Maybe we should indirectly “encourage” that third party effort and undermine support for “Libbing” Dole.
Did I read the poll details wrong or did this SUSA poll use an African-American sampling of only 19%